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促进创新的政策工具包

来源于 《比较》 2021年第2期 出版日期 2021年04月01日
文|尼古拉斯·布鲁姆 约翰·范里宁 海蒂·威廉姆斯

结论

  市场经济可能无法提供创新,主要是因为企业之间存在知识溢出。本文论证了旨在促进创新的政策工具。

  我们将我们的判断(当然是主观的)压缩到表2中,可以将它作为创新政策制定者的工具包。第1列总结了我们对当前可用的经验证据质量的解读,包括论文的数量和这些研究提供的证据的可信度。第2列概述政策证据的确凿性。第3列根据灯泡的排序(3个为最高)对总收益减去成本的差额(即净收益)进行评分。这个排序旨在综合反映证据的强度和平均影响的大小。第4列和第5列给出了另外两个标准:第一,主要影响是短期的(譬如在接下来的3—4年)、中期的还是长期的(大约10年或更长时间);第二,对不平等的可能影响。不同的政策制定者(和公民)会给这些标准赋予不同的权重。

b2

注:这是我们对证据所做的高度主观的解读。第1列综合反映研究的数量和研究设计的质量。第2列指出现有证据是否能提供任何确定的政策结论。第3列评估收益减去成本的大小(假设这些都是正值)。第4列描述主要收益(如果有的话)可能是在短期(未来3—4年)还是在长期(大约是10年或更久)内出现。第5列呈现对不平等的可能影响。

  资料来源:作者。

  在短期内,研发税收抵免和直接公共资助似乎是最有效的,而从长期看,增加人力资本供给(例如,通过扩大STEM领域的大学招生)更为有效。鼓励技术移民即使在短期内也会产生重大影响。竞争与开放的贸易政策对创新或许益处不大,但从金融角度讲它们成本低廉,因此得分也很高。一个区别是,研发补贴和开放贸易政策可能会加剧不平等,部分原因是高技能劳动力的需求增加;部分原因是在贸易方面,一些社区将承受贸易调整和失业的痛苦。相比之下,增加高技能劳动力的供给有望缓解对稀缺人力资本的竞争,从而缩小不平等。

  当然,对表2所列的政策,其他人无疑会有不同看法。不过我们希望,这一框架至少能促使人们就“恢复现代经济的公平增长需要采取什么措施”展开更多的辩论。

  (颜超凡 译)

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