回望当年 过去60年宏观经济学的教训

　　总结

　　将《通论》改编成凯恩斯新古典综合忽略了其模型的许多弱点。当然，这种适应性调整是有原因的，主要是宏观经济学家渴望建立一个支持积极的凯恩斯主义财政政策的专业共识。通过创建一个本质上是古典主义并允许经济学家有大量机会进行一次一偏离分析的总供给模型，凯恩斯主义政策确实得到了支持。但凯恩斯主义经济学家对他们的范式过于执着。他们对异常的观察结果不屑一顾，而这些观察结果表明需要有新的更细致入微的经济学思维。

　　20世纪60年代初出现的凯恩斯新古典综合制约了宏观经济学。最重要的是，它使金融稳定脱离了宏观经济学家的研究范畴。幸运的是，在2008年金融危机之后，金融经济学家先前的工作得到了姗姗来迟的承认，而宏观经济稳定的这一子领域也成为经济学中很可能最具活力的研究前沿。*16.作为一项指标，参见《经济展望杂志》2019年冬季关于金融稳定监管研讨会的文章。即使是对该领域的优秀工作的最简短总结也会使这篇文章的篇幅增加一倍多。但是，宏观审慎问题仍然是教科书中的后记。相应地，政府的各个委员会低估了宏观审慎政策的重要性。然而，考虑到可能再次发生危机，宏观审慎政策依然重要。从这些重要的方面来看，宏观经济学家在《通论》出版之后的几十年里对“讽刺性娱乐”的摒弃仍然与我们同在。如果要承担责任，我承认我的责任不亚于任何其他人。我尝试过改变，但我也曾是那些宏观经济学家之一。

　　（中国政法大学黄健栓译）

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