“法与金融”20年：是时候认真对待法律了

6.结论

　　本文回顾了过去20年法与金融学的研究文献。我们阐明，这些文献主要研究不同法律变量与日益增多的经济、社会和政治结果变量之间的实证联系，以期回答“法律是否重要”的问题。但是，除了进行大量实证研究外，发展一套逻辑一致的法律理论以支持实证研究则基本上被忽视了。

　　我们的评论首次详细分析了法与金融学派的研究背后的法律理论假设。以五个最具影响力的西方法律理论的概念为基准，我们得出了一个出人意料的结论：对于法律是什么以及法律如何影响经济主体和结果，法与金融学派的研究明显不够。我们的分析确实表明，某些反复出现的主题构成了法与金融学派的法律理论雏形，但是，这种理论理解是初步的、不成熟的，有时甚至是矛盾的。

　　无论如何，这一结论带来的关键问题是，这些理论缺陷严重吗？应用经济学领域的理论是否不足以正确预测我们关注的那些结果（参见Friedman，1966/1953）？这些问题是重要的，因为法与金融学派不仅受到理论上的挑战，还遭遇了实证研究方面的质疑。这个理论的预测能力看起来与该理论的流行程度大相径庭。(*15.例如Aguilera and Williams（2009），Armour et al.（2009b），Spamann（2010），Deakin et al.（2018）。)事实上，已有研究表明，法律解释变量和经济结果变量之间的关联缺乏理论化，这可能是因为理论与实证研究方案之间不匹配，进而导致结果难以解释以及不同研究之间难以比较（Schiehll and Martins，2016）。

　　所以我们建议，尽管法与金融学派的前20年侧重于从实证角度证明法律的重要性，但这一研究领域的下一发展阶段需要集中探索“法律如何重要”的理论问题。在这点上，更系统地借鉴现有的法律理论文献是重要一步。这将使我们可以设计出更有理论依据的实证方法，从而产生更稳健的研究结果，同时也有助于我们进一步理解法律在经济中的作用。

　　除了文献综述，我们的分析还揭示了理论在社会科学中的重要性。随着统计和实证方法变得越来越复杂，人们很容易产生一种错觉，以为复杂的方法可以让研究人员不必恰当地构建理论。的确，经济学和其他社会科学都有一种倾向，认为方法越复杂，就越不需要对变量之间的关系进行理论分析［参见Deaton and Cartewright（2017）的随机对照试验案例\]。但这是错误的观念，它会导致在各种观察环境下的经验策略不一致\[参见Schiehll and Martins（2016）对各种评论意见的再评论\]。因此我们建议，在第三个10年，法与金融学派的研究应围绕“法律如何重要”的问题构建理论，以便更好地指导他们对“法律是否重要”问题的实证研究。希望我们对法与金融学派文献的分析能够为解决这个问题提供启发。

　　（颜超凡 译）

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