5.总结
本文回顾了近期的经济史研究成果对理解政府在经济发展中的作用的贡献。在如今的发展经济学和政治经济学研究中,“历史至关重要”的观念已被普遍接受。我们指出,为充分认识现代政府的演化以及政府建设同经济增长的关系,非常需要给历史“解压缩”。为此,我们把分析聚焦在特定的作用机制上,由此可以通过对经济史的解读来深刻认识政府建设与经济增长过程。
我们得到的第一个认识是,现代政府的构建过程存在极大国别差异。对英格兰的案例研究凸显了制约国王行政权力的重要性(North and Weingast, 1989; Acemoglu et al., 2005b)。然而,对王室权力的制约并未避免(反而还加剧了)波兰-立陶宛王国在现代早期的衰败。于是我们非常关注法国、普鲁士和哈布斯堡王朝在现代政府建设中采用的不同道路。这一进程往往带有暴力性质,代价惨重,但正如有关莱茵河的财政管理与德意志关税同盟兴起的案例所示,由此留下的制度遗产促进了后来的经济增长。
对世界其他地区——如东亚和拉丁美洲——的政府建设进程的比较研究尚处于婴儿期,但我们相信它们同样会给如今的政策制定者带来有益的洞见。东亚的政府现代化是为了应对西方列强带来的地缘政治威胁。而在独立之后,撒哈拉以南非洲国家面临的最大挑战之一依然是建设高效的政府。
我们从回顾中得到的第二个明确认识是,经济发展与政府建设都是漫长而渐进的过程。这意味着久远的过去对现代发展机遇仍在发挥作用。卢卡斯在一篇著名论文中对菲律宾和韩国做了对比(Lucas,1993),它们在1960年均为贫困国家,但韩国在之后的几十年里以超过6%的速度增长,而菲律宾不到2%。卢卡斯认为这样巨大的差距不可思议——韩国已成为全球发达经济体,而菲律宾仍挣扎于贫困——他为此特别关注造成奇迹的某些政策和制度因素。
然而,在这两个国家1960年人均GDP水平相近的事实背后,却存在着根本性的差异。特别是,它们有着截然不同的中央集权政府历史。在沦为日本殖民统治及遭遇二战后的分裂之前,韩国有过漫长的持续政府形态的历史。相反在菲律宾的整个历史上,政治权威很少越过马尼拉的周边地区。尽管两国在1960年的人均GDP接近,建设现代政府并实现持续经济增长的任务,在菲律宾却注定会比在韩国困难得多。展望未来,这意味着对现代政府如何兴起、如何建设财政与法律能力的研究,可能会对制定经济改革、私有化及抑制腐败的可行计划有所参考。
如前文所述,我们从历史上观察到的政府能力与经济增长的联系存在或然性。现代经济增长的起源来自市场交换和贸易的扩张,由此带来了更发达复杂的劳动分工(给创新带来了回报)以及有助于刺激创新的文化和非经济因素的变化(Howes, 2016; McCloskey, 2016; Mokyr, 2016)。在此过程中,能力强大的政府的重要作用在于它们创造了恰当的制度条件,能够容许增长和创新的发生,或至少可以保护它们免受战争或寻租的破坏。
持续经济增长在19世纪的出现同强大而有限的政府有关。20世纪试图利用政府权力改造社会的宏大志向要么彻底失败,要么至少做了部分回调。本文的焦点是近期关于现代政府兴起与积极经济成就的关系的研究,但并不希望给人如下的印象,即我们忽略了政府多么容易给经济造成破坏(例如Shleifer and Vishny, 1998; Easterly, 2001)。把政府能力研究与政治经济学研究中关注政府失败的内容结合起来,是未来大有希望的路线。还有,19世纪后期以来现代政府的兴起同公共医疗和教育投资之间的联系,是政府能力同长期经济表现的另外两个重要联系渠道,也有待未来的研究。最后,我们认为对文化、社会资本、身份认同与政府能力的长期关系的研究才刚刚开始,将来大有可为。
(中国人民大学 王靖宜 译 余江 校)
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