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大流行病的长期经济影响

来源于 《比较》 2020年第4期 出版日期 2020年08月01日
文|奥斯卡·乔尔达 桑贾伊·辛格 艾伦·泰勒

结论

  综上所述,基于有限的数据本文得出以下结论:上一个千年发生的历史性大流行病通常伴随着接踵而至的低资产回报率。利率的反应巨大,实际工资的反应则小一些,但仍具有统计上的显著性,且与基准的新古典模型一致。

  通过衡量基准经济统计数据(实际自然利率)的偏差,这些反应表明,大流行病结束之后会出现持续数十年的投资机会低迷和/或储蓄意愿增强,前者可能是由单位存活劳动力的资本过剩导致的,后者可能是由预防性储蓄的增加或财富枯竭后的重新积累导致的。

  无论以何种方式,如果这些趋势以同样的方式紧随经流行病规模调整后的新冠疫情而来,那么全球经济走势将与几周前的预期大相径庭。如果低实际利率将持续数十年,那它们将为各国政府提供可喜的财政空间,以减轻这一流行病带来的后果。但需要注意的是,过去的流行病发生的时代与现在有所不同,那些时代几乎没有社会成员可以存活到老年时期。黑死病和其他瘟疫暴发时,受到冲击的主要是年龄结构中60岁以下的人口,因此,这次的情况可能有所不同。

  (上海交大安泰经济与管理学院刘雪飞、周咏琪 译,汪怡成亦有贡献;黄少卿校)

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