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互联网基础设施的经济学分析

来源于 《比较》 2021年第3期 出版日期 2021年06月01日
文|谢恩·格林斯坦

最后的政策问题

  互联网基础设施在过去几十年持续进步,使网络服务得到显著改善,众多用户则愿意为此付费。反过来,付费又增强了改善数字基础设施的激励,尽管大多数用户看不到背后的进程。这一良性循环伴随着网络接入收入的增长、免费服务(如新闻和搜索)的广告收入增长,以及利用在线购物优势的电子商务的增长。

  一个尚待回答的重大问题是,这样的增长和改进是否会在未来持续。某些因素可能减缓增长,如家庭和企业的宽带普及饱和;还有些因素则可能使其加速,如利用云技术和5G无线设施的在线服务重构等。过去数十年的历史表明,互联网架构具有适应变化的卓越潜能,但每个变化事实上也会带来新的挑战。每个变化都会改变不同供应商的收入和成本,某些发展将造成纠纷,例如早期的流媒体传播引发的事件。因此,未来的某些变化是否会给互联网基础设施的治理及其设计的适应性造成过大压力,仍有待探讨。

  到目前为止,关于互联网的监管架构尚未形成共识。政策与政府机构的干预意愿随着商业互联网的成长而演进,包括法律或监管指令(如并购条件)中包含的正式政策,以及关于一般原则的公开声明(如联邦通信委员会主席的演讲)中包含的非正式政策。有关这些政策的发展历史,可以参阅相关学者的研究(Nuechterlein and Weiser,2005;Greenstein,2010;Greenstein、Peitz and Valleti,2016;Knieps and Bauer,2016),以及Cybertelecom.org。

  未来学家们绝不会忽略无线和云服务重组的良机,但也不会认为竞争性宽带将很快普及到所有地区。互联网的这些和那些变化必然给可预见的将来带来更多未解问题和政策讨论。

(余江 译)

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