贸易改革是否会推动经济增长？对近期相关证据的回顾

　　7.结语

　　经济学家一直对亚当·斯密时代以后贸易管制措施与经济增长之间的关系非常感兴趣。20世纪80年代末和90年代初席卷众多国家的贸易改革浪潮为这个问题提供了新的历史证据。没有任何一种方法能够完美地对这项研究提供具有决定意义的证据，因此研究者采用多种方法努力理解这两者之间的关系。

　　近期的研究结果展现出惊人的一致性。看起来对于被技术前沿远远甩在后面并且采取重大进口管制措施的发展中国家，采取更加自由化的贸易政策会给它们带来显著的经济回报。如表1所示，很多研究者采用各种方式衡量政策后发现，推行贸易改革后经济增长比基准增长率高出1.0—1.5个百分点。很多研究表明推行贸易自由化10年后，它产生的效益不断累积，会将收入提升10%—20%。贸易改革在各国产生的效应具有异质性，因为各国推行改革的范围和背景各不相同。

　　在微观经济层面，下调进口中间产品关税对工业生产率的推动作用表现得更为显著。这种效果在很多国家都曾反复出现。

　　目前还有一些问题尚无定论，如一国在推行贸易改革的同时还启动了其他市场化改革，那么随后出现的经济增长有多少是由贸易政策本身促成的。然而，即使降低贸易壁垒只是推动经济增长的部分原因，改革也产生了显著的累积效益。泰勒等人(2013，第1689页)提出了一个问题：“在过去20年里，还有其他单一政策使发展中国家的收入提升了15%—20%吗？”

　　（刁琳琳译）

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