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产业政策和发展:政治经济学视角

来源于 《比较》 2016年第1期 出版日期 2016年02月01日
詹姆斯·罗宾逊

6.对产业政策的新研究方法

  以上对历史经验的诠释表明,失败的产业政策乃至各种糟糕政策都是错位的政治激励的后果。因此,成功促进工业化要求改变政治均衡格局,以便使掌握政治权力的群体与社会实现激励相容。这可以通过改变政治制度来实现,或者通过社会权力平衡的内生变化来实现。东亚国家成功推行产业政策的历史就表明这一地区在历史上出现了特殊的政治均衡格局,与拉丁美洲或撒哈拉以南非洲国家迥然不同。

  发展路径的历史根源以及产业政策的内生特性,使它们难以因为简单的政策建议而改变,因为我们尚不清楚如何把中国台湾或韩国的政治均衡复制到其他地区。本文的分析已明确指出,这些国家的历史经验与很多独特的因素有关。促进工业发展的产业政策要求我们深入理解社会的政治均衡、经济参与者及其利益关系、政治制度、实际与法定的政治权力格局,以及这些因素组成的综合图景。在做到这点之后,可以有多种途径来促进工业发展。例如,增强在工业发展上有既得利益的群体的力量;通过改变政治制度来引入更激烈的政治竞争,以产生更有社会效率的政策;撬动政治均衡的另一种办法是在内部发挥作用,给现有的政治精英群体创造调整政策的激励等。这里不能详细阐述新的产业政策框架应该是怎样的,只是希望清楚地说明,为什么我们需要采用这种新的思路。

7.结论

  本文试图提出一个直观的论点,我们有充分理由从经济学理论中得出结论:产业政策可以是社会所需要的,并有可能促进经济增长和发展。某些重要的案例能支持这个说法,若干国家的产业政策确实发挥了有益作用,当然也有若干国家遭到失败。本文进而指出,成败原因在于采纳产业政策的不同国家的政治环境。与任何对社会有益的政策一样,产业政策未必是政治均衡的结果,即使能推出产业政策,也未必能采取理想的形式。例如,某些国家的政策更多关注收入再分配或政治权力巩固,而非促进经济增长。所以,那么多非洲国家在1960年代的产业政策遭遇失败,以及其他经济政策也普遍非常糟糕,都是出于同样的原因,即各种政策的目标是为了维护政治权力,与促进经济增长往往存在冲突。这些非洲国家以及程度较轻的拉丁美洲国家同东亚国家的区别在于,它们的政治均衡格局完全不同,东亚的地缘政治和历史环境非常独特。最后,我认为如果这种政治经济学视角成立,那就需要从新的思路来看待产业政策。仅仅提出好的经济政策是不够的,我们必须考虑这些好建议如何能被掌握政治权力的群体自愿采纳。■

  (余江译)

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